Evaluating the Challenge of Climate Change: Southern African Adaptation Measures
The economic prospects of coastal zones, home to about one-fifth of the world’s population, face a serious threat from the rise in sea-level and the increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. A one metre rise in sea-level would bring about extensive flooding in the Nile Delta, as well as damage to other coastal cities and ports. At this rate of sea-level rise, the cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5% - 10% of gross domestic product (GDP)(1) and would eventually lead to much greater damage to coastal regions, city and transport infrastructure.
Climate change, including extreme events such as storms, floods and sustained droughts, is already having an impact on settlements and infrastructure in Africa, especially in coastal regions. Three of the five global regions most at risk of flooding are located in Africa: in the Nile delta of North Africa, in the long coastal belt along the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa, and at the large cities of Maputo, Beira and Cape Town in Southern Africa. The UN has also predicted that there will be millions of ‘environmental’ migrants by 2020 with climate change as one of the major drivers of this phenomenon. Those parts of the population that already suffer from poor health conditions, unemployment or social exclusion are rendered more vulnerable to the effects of climate change which could amplify or trigger migration within and between countries.
An Industry Rebirth? Oil in the DRC
An industry rebirth?
For over half a century the DRC has been involved in the oil industry, though on a very small scale. In the 1950’s exploration started and a decade later discoveries were made along the 60km-long west coast positioned between Angola. 1969 saw the signing of a 30 year contract for production with Chevron, with outputs materialising in 1975. However, despite initial optimism, in the past 3 decades, the DRC has produced a mere 350 million barrels of oil – the present equivalent of 11 days of production in Saudi Arabia. Amounting to just 25,000 barrels per year (10,000 offshore and 15,000 onshore), the DRC remains a minor producer even in Central Africa. This is in stark contrast to neighbouring countries such as Angola (1.9 million barrels/day), the Republic of Congo (260,000), Guinea Bissau (380,000) and Gabon (295,000).
All-in-all, the DRC’s oil production has performed poorly – something which can in part be attributed to the total control of the sector under the company Perenco. However, the status quo looks set to change, with new exploration points arising, and the government stating its intention to increase production on the west coast. On shore, the government also hopes that oilfields which have been in production since the 1970’s have in fact been underexploited.
The Justice Experiment: Africa and the ICC
The ICC was established in 1998 by the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. The Court, based in The Hague in the Netherlands, opened in July 2002 after the Statute was ratified by 60 countries. Currently the ICC has 139 signatories and 107 state parties, of which 30 are African states. Countries that have not yet ratified the statute include the United States, China and Russia.
The African media and academia tend to be negative about the activities of the ICC, arguing, amongst other things, that the ICC is too selective when it comes to the prosecution of perpetrators. The ICC is focussed too much on Africa, where crimes against humanity committed in other parts of the world are often, selectively, ignored. At a seminar conducted by the Centre for Conflict Resolution in Cape Town, South Africa, the opinion was raised that the ICC focuses on economically weak and politically vulnerable countries and countries which do not have the capacity or political will to try perpetrators of crimes against humanity. This leads some analysts from the developing world to believe that the ICC has a political agenda, since powerful states and actors will not be subject to trial and justice, stating the recent example of Russia and Georgia. Fears also exist that powerful states could manipulate the Court according to their own geo-political agenda and in the process exasperate existing conflicts.
UN Slams Police Repression in the Bas Congo Province - July 2008
The report documents the political and religious suppression of the "Bundu dia Kongo" (translated from Kikongo to mean the "Kingdom of Congo") on the part of the police in early-March 2008. According to the UN, the Congolese rapid response police unit and the integrated police unit were deployed to the province to counter Bundu dia Kongo's meetings. This came on the back of the movements’ attempts to usurp national control, and takeover certain remote areas of the province by replacing local authorities, policemen, magistrates, and priests with their own people. As history has shown, this process is actually quite a common feature of the Bas Congo region. Occurring roughly every two decades, the people of the Kongo tribe reportedly discover a new prophet who will speak out against authorities. It is little wonder that authorities would be worried about the movement of such a group - during Belgian colonial rule one such 'prophet' - Simon Kimbangu - founded a new church whose members nowadays amount to millions in the DRC.
Game Over for the DRC’s Most Powerful Warlord - A Short History of Jean Pierre Bemba’s Rise and Fall - June 2008
New Dimensions of Belly Politics: Escalating Food Prices, Riots and Rising Insecurity - May 2008
Politics, Ethnicity and Peace…Kenya 3-months on - April 2008
Bush comes to shove: Resources, terrorism and China in Africa - March: 2008
The EU-Africa Strategic Partnership - December: 2007
Climate Change and Increasing Floods in Africa: Implications for Africa’s Development - November: 2007
The African continent has experienced severe flooding in the few past months, due to heavy torrential rains which started in July of 2007. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) estimates that the number of floods on the continent that require relief aid have increased eight-fold since 2004. The floods that Africa has been experiencing this year have been described as the worst in three decades. The importance of the issue has been echoed in the debate on climate change which has dominated the annual General Debate at the United Nations General Assembly from 25 September to 3 October. The recent floods in Africa reflect the challenges of climate change. Experts believe that the recent floods have been caused by the La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean - a phenomenon during which oceans cool down faster, due to extremes in temperatures caused by global warming, and causing the rainy season to come earlier. The resultant effects have seen people having to deal with floods that are more extreme than usual. In addition, deforestation has also been blamed, such as in the case of Rwanda, where the destruction of the Gishwati forest has been charged as the reason for the heavy rains in that region.
Malawi’s Political Turmoil: A Crisis Averted? - October: 2007
The Emergence of a New Epidemic: Drug Trafficking and West Africa - September: 2007
Darfur: After the UN and AU, enter the EU! - August: 2007
Following the Artemis (2003) and Eufor (2006) military missions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the European Union (EU) is on the verge of sending a military mission to Africa for the third time in 4 years. This time, European troops will be deployed beyond the Sudanese border, both in Chad and Central Africa Republic (CAR). The deployment, which is directly linked to the Darfur conflict, follows intensive talks between Brussels and New York in July 2007. The meeting, which included Jean Marie Guehenno, the head of the United Nations Department for Peacekeeping Operations (UN-DPO), a strong advocate of a European military mission. On July 23, the European Council agreed for a feasibility study for the deployment of about 2,000 troops.
ANC Succession Race - Determining South Africa’s Future - July: 2007
Having emerged from a freedom-organisation to a political party ruling Africa’s power house, South Africa, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is now facing one of its more unpredictable times. Up to now, leadership in the party has largely been known and understood; Nelson Mandela, the reconciliatory leader led the party from independence to 1999, followed by the economic growth orientated Thabo Mbeki. However, the candidacy - and ultimately South Africa’s future - is now being heatedly contended. With the ANC looking to comfortably win the 2009 General Elections (the party gained 67% of the vote in 2004), the December 2007 party elections will ultimately determine South Africa’s next President - either directly or indirectly. While a number of names are being bandied about to lead the ANC, there are truly 3 players in the ring at this stage: Jacob Zuma, Mbeki, and Tokyo Sexwale. South Africa’s ex-Deputy President and current ANC Deputy President, Jacob Zuma, is, rightly, viewed as a ‘people’s person’. Armed with extensive ‘struggle credentials’ through his time spent in exile during Apartheid, Zuma is a populist contender who holds significant grassroots support, despite facing potentially crippling setbacks such as corruption charges, a rape accusation, and embarrassing comments on homosexuals and HIV & AIDS.


