The food security situation facing Niger is currently regarded as dire, as the country may experience the worst famine in 30 years.(2) More than seven million people in Niger are in need of food and a state of emergency has been declared.(3) The food crisis continues to deteriorate and the Head of the World Food Programme (WFP), Josette Sheeran, is concerned that the crisis could ‘cost the lives of a generation.’(4)

The food crisis is in its initial stage, but predictions are the crisis will be long-lasting. In pastoral areas, production is 66% below national needs.(5) This will force pastoralists to migrate across 150-200km to reach the agricultural zones in southern Niger and northern Nigeria.(6) This migration may cause internal tension in Niger and lead to regional instability, as tensions may rise in Nigeria due to Nigeriens crossing the border in search of food and work.

Niger and food security

Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world - ranked 182 out of 182 on the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Index 2007.(7) The country is landlocked and mostly desert, but the southern region where most people live is fertile.(8) Most of Niger’s population are poor subsistence farmers who are dependent on their environment, where even the slightest disruption may be disastrous.(9) As most farmers are subsistent, they struggle when crops fail due to prices rising, rendering them unable to pay for the grain.

In May 2010, Niger was hit by another food crisis, as drought began ruining harvests and killing off the herds. The last major drought in Niger was in 2005 and drought is said to strike once or twice every five years.(10) The current food crisis was caused by the late start and early cessation of rain in 2009, which caused a decline in crop yields, a rise in food prices and a fall in livestock prices.(11) The crisis has increased tension between nomads and farmers in Niger, due to nomads migrating further south.(12) The loss in production in pastoral areas may have long-lasting consequences for the economy and the health and livelihood of the Nigerien population. The migration is causing conflict over agricultural zones as pastoralists are migrating into zones occupied by farmers. The barren lands will need time to recover from the drought and the new harvest will take years to yield crop. If the drought and the late start and early cessation of rain continue, the Nigerien economy, based primarily on agriculture, will suffer in the future.

The consequences of the drought in Niger may be conflict within Niger and with neighbouring countries like Nigeria. Niger is struggling with a weak economy and an unstable Government and this food crisis may further weaken the economy and the relative political stability.

Consequences for regional stability 

The Sahel region of West Africa, which includes Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Mali, is experiencing food insecurity and higher prices as drought strikes the region. Most West African countries are dominated by agriculture as this is the main and export and key employer.(13) The region is thus especially vulnerable to any environmental influences. The food insecurity facing West Africa has been fuelled by a pastoral crisis, which has led to nomads migrating south.(14) This migration has increased conflict between the nomads and the farmers.(15) This conflict has the potential to escalate as the food crisis continues to deteriorate and more and more people migrate in search of food and work.

As a result of the food crisis in Niger, thousands of Nigeriens have entered the five northern Nigerian states of Katsina, Yobe, Jigawa, Sokoto and Borno. The Nigeriens are seeking casual labour to earn money to buy grain.(16) At the same time Northern areas of Nigeria are also suffering from a food security crisis. As many as 12 million people may be affected by shortage of food, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) warned on 27 May 2010.(17) The influx of Nigeriens to an already struggling region may cause tension and fuel conflict. Conflict may exacerbate if the crisis continues over time as more and more people will migrate in search of food.  West Africa is already suffering from conflict within countries and between countries. Food shortage may fuel conflicts further. This crisis, if prolonged, may affect a region already strained by conflict and dispute. 

Food insecurity and the potential for conflict

Food insecurity and conflict are closely related. Between 1992 and 2003, 35% of food emergencies were caused by conflict and economic problems.(18) In September 2003, 38 countries in the world faced serious food shortages requiring international assistance, 22 of these were African countries.(19) In West Africa, food insecurity is caused by both human natural disasters, making the situation more complex.(20) As a consequence of the food insecurity, ‘the conflict/post-conflict scenarios of mass migration, starvation, sectoral collapse and death due to hunger and disease (as opposed to combat-induced death) becomes more likely.’(21)

This is what seems to be happening in Niger at the moment. Migration is already an issue as nomads and famers are in dispute over land and resources and tension is rising as Nigeriens move into Nigeria. Niger is as a result, experiencing internal tension. There exists a risk of border tensions between Niger and Nigeria, as both countries are struggling with food insecurity. The migration of Nigeriens into Nigeria in search of food and work may exacerbate the situation further.

Concluding remarks

Although there is no conflict at the moment, the prediction that Niger will continue to fall prey to climate change food insecurity is grave. Prolonged food insecurity may lead to conflict within Niger, as well as neighbouring countries as Nigeriens may flee seeking livelihood elsewhere. Other West African countries, like Nigeria, are also suffering from food insecurity and migration in search of food and work may cause strain on several countries. Tension between Nigeria and Niger may arise as Nigeriens are fleeing into Nigeria in areas where there is food shortage. Although the food crisis in Niger is in an initial phase, the consequent effects may be severe. Regional destabilisation and tension between nomads and farmers may further strain already struggling economies. Conflict may exasperate food shortages, but there is also evidence of food shortages fuelling conflict.(22)

NOTES:

(1) Christine Storo is an External Consultant in Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Conflict & Terrorism Unit ( This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ).
(2) Boureima Hama ‘10 mln fear worst as Sahel faces new food crisis’ AFP, 11 June 2010, http://news.yahoo.com.
(3) Ibid.
(4) Megan Rowling, ’Niger food crisis could cost a generation – WFP chief, 02 July 2010, Alertnet, http://www.alertnet.org.
(5) Ibid.
(6) Ibid.
(7) Human Development Report 200, ’Overcoming barriers, human mobility and development’, http://hdr.undp.org.
(8) Stefan Lovgren, ‘Food crisis in Niger will strike again, experts say’, National Geographic News, 12 September 2010, http://news.nationalgeographic.com.
(9) Ibid.
(10) Ibid.
(11) NIGER Food Security Alert, January 28, 2010, US AID, FEWS NET (Famine Early Warning System Network), http://www.fews.net.
(12) Boureima Hama ‘10 mln fear worst as Sahel faces new food crisis’ AFP, 11 June 2010, http://news.yahoo.com.
(13) Ibid.
(14) Nigeria: Fallout from Niger food crisis, IRIN, 3 June 2010, http://www.irinnews.org.
(15) Ibid.
(16) Ibid.
(17) Ibid.
(18) FAO Food Security and Agricultural Projects Analysis Service (ESAF), International Workshop: ’Food Security and Crisis in Countries Subject to Complex Emergencies’, September 23-25 2003, http://www.fao.org.  
(19) Margarita Flores, ’Conflicts, Rural Development and Food Security in West Africa’, ESA Working Paper No. 04-02, January 2004,  www.fao.org.
(20) Ibid.
(21) Ibid. 
(22) Margarita Flores, ’Conflicts, Rural Development and Food Security in West Africa’, ESA Working Paper No. 04-02, January 2004,  www.fao.org.