This month’s Election Review provides an overview of the run-up to the presidential elections in Rwanda and the constitutional referendum in Kenya, both of which are scheduled for August 2010. Although Rwanda has been relatively stable since the 1994 genocide, there have been accusations that the ruling party has been quick to quash dissent and criticism in the lead-up to the election – two opposition candidates have been arrested during this time. Concerns have also been raised over the potential for violence during the constitutional referendum in Kenya, particularly in light of the post-election violence that occurred in 2007.

Post-election coverage examines Burundi, where a boycott by opposition candidates resulted in only the incumbent standing in the 28 June 2010 election. The First Round of presidential elections in Guinea-Conakry is also examined, where the former Prime Minister and the long-standing opposition leader both secured sufficient votes to progress to the Second Round.

Pre-election

Rwanda – Presidential Election

Presidential elections in Rwanda are scheduled to take place on 9 August 2010. The August election will be the second presidential election since the genocide in Rwanda in 1994.

Main candidates

The current President Paul Kagame (Rwandan Patriotic Front)was initially selected by Members of Parliament in 2000, when the country was governed by a transitional government. Kagame then went on to win in a landslide victory in 2003 in the first election held after the genocide. Kagame,whowill stand again for president in the 2010 elections and is widely expected to win, faces three challenges, from Jean Damascene Ntawakuriryayo (Social Democratic Party), Prosper Higiro (Liberal Party) and Alvera Mukabaramba (Progress and Harmony Party).

Human rights groups claim that the ruling party has become increasingly intolerant of dissent and criticism in the run-up to the election. Opposition leader Victoire Ingabire,who tried to register her United Democratic Forces Party, was briefly detained in April 2010 on charges of denying genocide and collaborating with a terrorist group. The opposition leader Bernard Ntaganda,who also intended to run for the post of President, was also arrested and charged with a terrorism offence in June 2010.

Campaign Issues and/or concerns

• Rwanda has been relatively stable under the rule of Paul Kagame and Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) since the genocide in 1994.
• Kagame is widely expected to win.
• Human rights groups say dissent and challenges to the authority of the ruling party have been quickly quashed.
• Over 5.2 million Rwandans are expected to turn up to vote, an increase of 1.3 million compared to the 2003 presidential elections.

Kenya – Constitution Referendum

A constitutional referendum is scheduled to be held in Kenya on 4 August 2010 to approve or disprove the new proposed Constitution passed by Parliament on 1 April 2010. The new Constitution is seen as a vital step to avoid repetition of the violence following the 2007 elections. It is hoped that the new Constitution will help Kenya move towards a new rights- and democracy-based political and social order.

Criticisms and proposed changes

• The main criticisms of the current Constitution are that there is:
• too much power concentrated in the hands of the President;
• too much power concentrated in the capital, Nairobi;
• inadequate accountability of the President and members of Parliament;
• inadequate prevention and control of corruption;
• an absence of guarantees of equal and fair use of national resources;
• inadequate recognition of Kenya’s diversity;
• inadequate recognition of the rights and concerns of vulnerable groups;
• inadequate protection of human rights; and
• discrimination against women.

The 'camps'

Key representatives in the ‘Yes’ campaign include the President Mwai Kibaki, the Prime Minister Raila Odinga, the Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and both Deputy Prime Ministers Musalia Mudavadi and Uhuru Kenyatta.

Notable individuals in the ‘No’ campaign include the Minister for Higher Education William Ruto, the Minister for Information, Samual Poghisio, former President Daniel arap Moi, many Church leaders and several members of Parliament.

Main Issues and concerns

• Following initial scrutiny in April 2010, the proposal to reduce the power of the President by re-enacting the position of Prime Minister was dropped.
• There are already signs of tension and violence. A grenade attack on a political rally in June 2010 relating to the referendum saw at least six people killed and many more injured.
• Concerns have been raised that the constitutional referendum will polarise Kenya in the same way that the 2005 referendum split the country into sides ahead of the presidential elections.
• According to polls, 64% of voters are in favour of the constitution.
• The international community has praised the approach Kenya is taking to constitutional reform.

Post-election

Burundi - Presidential election (First Round)

Election outcome: The Burundi presidential election was won by the only remaining candidate in the presidential election ­– Pierre Nkurunziza,of the National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of  Democracy (CNDD-FDD).

Results: Pierre Nkurunziza secured 91.6% of the votes.

The First Round of the presidential election was held in Burundi on 28 June 2010. Due to withdrawals and allegations of fraud and intimidation by opposition candidates, the incumbent Pierre Nkurunziza was the only candidate to stand.

With Burundi still recovering from the civil war which ended as recently as 2005, the boycott of the presidential elections took place against an already tense political background. The allegations of misconduct during the election were further compounded by incidents of violence and a low voter turnout. Most opposition parties, which boycotted the first round of the elections, do not acknowledge Nkurunziza as the rightful leader of the country. With Nkurunziza set to for another term in office however, there are concerns that further outbreaks of violence, particularly given the ethnic nature of politics in Burundi, might be on the horizon. Opposition candidates have also registered their intention to boycott the parliamentary elections due to take place on 23 July 2010.

Election commentary

• The 2010 election was the first direct election by voters rather than by Parliament.
• Five opposition candidates, including Agathon Rwasa who was considered the strongest contender against the incumbent, withdrew from the election alleging that the government intended to rig it.
• The run-up to the election saw clashes between former combatants and youth activists of the ruling and opposition parties.
• Three grenade attacks were reported the day before the election resulting in the international community calling for calm.
• With Nkurunziza the only candidate, he secure 92 percent of the votes.
• Concerns have been raised of the potential for future violence and protest by sections of the population who considered Nkurunzinza not to have been rightly elected.

Guinea-Conakry – Presidential election (First Round)

Election outcome: Cellou Diallo and Alpha Conde will proceed to a run-off in the second round.

Results: Of the front-runners in the first round, Cellou Diallo (UFDG) received 39.7% of the votes, Alpha Conde (RPG) received 20.7% of the votes and Sidya Toure (UFR) received 15.6%. 

The first democratic election held in Guinea for more than half a century was carried out peacefully despite tension and fears of violence. The former Prime Minister Cellou Diallo, of the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG), received the highest percentage of votes. Since Cellou Diallo did not receive more than 50% of the votes, the terms of the Guinean electoral process dictate that he will proceed into a second round run-off against the long-standing opposition leader Alpha Conde.

Whilst the second round was originally scheduled for 18 July 2010, it has been postponed due to a number of complaints relating to the first round of the presidential election which was held on 27 June 2010. Whilst the election took place in relative peace, supporters of the former Prime Minister Sidya Toure have since been protesting amidst allegations of electoral fraud after Toure came third, and is therefore not eligible to participate in the run-off. A number of other candidate have also made allegations of voting irregularities and the electoral commission has itself acknowledged cases of fraud. A date for the second round will not be set until the Supreme Court makes a ruling on these charges and is unlikely to now take place before the beginning of August.

Election commentary

• Vote intended to return Guinea to civilian government after a military junta seized power in December 2008.
• Interim president General Sekoube Konate, was praised for appointing a transitional government and ‘keeping the peace’.
• Candidates were praised for emphasising national unity over ethnic and regional divisions.
• Second round postponed amidst allegations of electoral irregularities.

NOTES:

(1) Hannah Gibson is an External Consultant for Consultancy Africa Intelligence's Election Reflection ( This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ).