On 9 August 2010, the incumbent President Paul Kagame of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) was successfully re-elected President for another seven year term. Preliminary reports from election observers, civil society groups and trusted media sources seem to indicate that the election was conducted peacefully. The peaceful management of the election and high turnout indicate that a voting culture has been instilled into Rwanda and that support for the participatory institutions of democracy is high. However, all international monitoring groups reported restrictions on political space in the run up to the election. It is feared that this is having a detrimental effect on the realisation of political freedoms within Rwanda. Whilst the vote itself was carried out peacefully, the prevailing atmosphere in Rwanda is constricting the exercise of civil and political rights.

This month’s Election Review first outlines the up-coming Madagascan parliamentary elections. Scheduled to take place on 30 September, these elections signal the end of the political crisis in Madagascar that began when the President was forced to resign in March 2009 under military pressure.

Post-election coverage this month examines the results of the constitutional referendum in Kenya which took place on 4 August. Against a backdrop of tension and fears of violence, the constitutional reforms were passed peacefully, ushering in one of the most ambitious constitutions in Africa. In addition, the post-election section provides an overview of the results of the presidential election in Rwanda. In the second presidential election since the genocide in Rwanda in 1994, during which time the country has been relatively stable, concerns have been voiced over the repression of political opposition and the crack down on freedom of expression.

Rwandan context in brief perspective

On 9 August 2010, Rwanda will hold its second Presidential election under its 2003 post-genocide constitution, which requires a Presidential election to be held every seven years. The first election was held in 2003 and won by Paul Kagame, leader of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF).  Kagame succeeded Pastor Bizimungu, who held office after the RPF established themselves as the predominant political power in the country. The RPF consolidated their power in the 2003 Presidential elections and the 2008 parliamentary elections and currently enjoy a monopoly of power in the country.

This month’s Election Review provides an overview of the run-up to the presidential elections in Rwanda and the constitutional referendum in Kenya, both of which are scheduled for August 2010. Although Rwanda has been relatively stable since the 1994 genocide, there have been accusations that the ruling party has been quick to quash dissent and criticism in the lead-up to the election – two opposition candidates have been arrested during this time. Concerns have also been raised over the potential for violence during the constitutional referendum in Kenya, particularly in light of the post-election violence that occurred in 2007.

Post-election coverage examines Burundi, where a boycott by opposition candidates resulted in only the incumbent standing in the 28 June 2010 election. The First Round of presidential elections in Guinea-Conakry is also examined, where the former Prime Minister and the long-standing opposition leader both secured sufficient votes to progress to the Second Round.

Background to the Election

Landlocked Burundi is among the Central African countries that make up the volatile Great Lakes region. Like its northern neighbour, Rwanda, Burundi’s political history has been shaped by its ethnic composition. Its approximately 8.3 million people are unevenly split between the majority Hutus and minority Tutsis. For most of Burundi’s colonial and immediate post-colonial period, however, the distribution of political power has failed to conform to this demographic profile, with the minority Tutsis dominating both the political and economic life of the country. As was the case in Rwanda, the negative correlation between ethnic numbers and political authority entrenched tension between the Hutus and Tutsis, which was made manifest in intermittent waves of violence that lasted for 13 years and claimed the lives of more than 300,000 people. During this period of turmoil, governmental control also alternated between Tutsis and Hutus, and Burundi witnessed both military and civilian rule.